9 October 2026 · Reporting verified against the dated sources below.
The August numbers
South Africa’s manufacturing production fell 4.3% in August 2026 compared with August 2025, Statistics South Africa reported on Thursday, 8 October. On a seasonally adjusted basis, output fell 3.1% from July, reversing part of the previous month’s 2.2% increase. July’s annual comparison had shown growth of 1.1%.
The monthly fall is significant because manufacturing supplies jobs, inputs and exports across the economy. But one month’s contraction does not by itself establish a recession across the sector. Stats SA also reported that production in the three months to August was 1.1% higher than in the preceding three months, with eight of ten manufacturing divisions posting positive growth on that comparison.
Where production weakened
The biggest negative contribution to annual growth came from petroleum, chemicals, rubber and plastics, where production fell 5.0% and subtracted 1.1 percentage points from the total. Motor vehicles, parts and other transport equipment contracted 8.8%, subtracting 0.7 percentage points. Wood, paper and printing fell 7.0%; food and beverages declined 3.0%; and basic metals, metal products and machinery also fell 3.0%.
These are division-level figures from the official release, not forecasts. They describe changes in the volume of output, not the value of factory sales or the number of workers employed.
A mixed picture behind the headline
The three-month measure offers a less abrupt picture than the August snapshot. Food and beverages output rose 2.5% over the previous three-month period, contributing 0.6 percentage points to growth. Basic metals and machinery added a further 0.3 percentage points as that division expanded 1.5%. This does not erase August’s weakness, but it cautions against extrapolating a single month into a full-year trend.
What to watch next
The next manufacturing release is scheduled for 10 November, according to the Statistics South Africa publication. Subsequent figures will help show whether August was a temporary reversal or part of a more sustained slowdown. CREATIVE KONG will track the official production series rather than equating movements in the rand or market sentiment with factory output.
