Lower output, higher sales

Kumba Iron Ore reported a 19% year-on-year fall in production to 7.5 million tonnes for the third quarter of 2026, compared with approximately 9.2 million tonnes a year earlier. In its 20 October operational report, the South African mining company attributed much of the reduction to a planned shutdown at Sishen while it connects new processing technology.

Stockpiles kept shipments moving

Sales moved in the opposite direction, rising 3% to approximately 10 million tonnes. Kumba said it drew on finished-product stocks to maintain shipments while the Sishen dense-media-separation plant was partly offline. The company reported 4.8 million tonnes of finished stock at the end of the quarter, down from 7.0 million tonnes at the end of June.

An R11.2 billion bet on Sishen

The upgrade uses ultra-high-dense-media-separation technology intended to recover more value from lower-grade ore and increase the share of premium iron-ore products. Kumba put the project’s total approved capital cost at R11.2 billion and reported overall progress of about 60%. It expects the main connection work to finish before the end of 2026, with the final module conversion planned for 2028. Those are company schedules, not completed milestones.

The market remains difficult

Kumba cited weaker Chinese steel production, pressure on steel-mill margins and strong seaborne supply as headwinds for iron-ore prices. It said its average realised export price for the first nine months was US$86 per wet metric tonne, compared with US$94 a year earlier. Rail performance and input costs remain material variables for the rest of the year.

What the company still expects

Despite the quarterly decline, Kumba retained full-year guidance of 31–33 million tonnes of production and 35–37 million tonnes of sales. Those figures are forecasts, subject to operations, logistics and market conditions. The story is not simply that a mine produced less: the immediate test is whether the upgrade can deliver improved product quality and long-term competitiveness without derailing exports.

Sources and verification

Kumba Iron Ore official Q3 production report, 20 October 2026: Source ↗

Anglo American Q3 production report, 20 October 2026: Source ↗

Mining Weekly project update, 7 August 2026: Source ↗